12

March 2014

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I've written two blogs on Tasmanian State Election betting so far.  If you're interested in betting on the Tasmanian State election you should read them before this update.  You can find my complete roundup of the chances here and an update specifically on the Adam Brooks betting plunge here.

 

Party of next Premier

The Market

Candidate

Friday 7 March

Saturday 8 March

Wednesday12 March

Liberal

$1.05

$1.05

$1.02

Labor

$7.50

$7.50

$11

Green

$15

$21

$21

PUP

$51

$51

$51

 

The Movers

When this market originally went up in early January the Liberals were at an incredibly juicy $1.15.  That quickly shortened to $1.08 a few days later.  In the last week it has shortened to just $1.02.

Punters now consider this a sure thing.

The main reason for that is that every legitimate poll is calling this election for the Liberals.  As our politas friend, Kevin Bonham points out, everything points towards a majority Liberal Government.  Historically we have had to rely on EMRS polling, which has been horribly inaccurate, but this election sees new entrants like Reachtel add its considerable expertise. 

Even if the Liberals don't secure more than 13 seats on Saturday, punters will be backing a scenario where the Liberals simply cannot accept four more years in opposition and attempt to form a minority government.

As a result, punters now see a Liberal Premier as a sure thing. 

The Value Bet

The only other option is a Labor Premier in a minority government.  I think this is highly unlikely and so do the punters, now having pushed it out to $11.  In a two horse race, $11 is rarely not value.  But I still caution against this bet. 

The Tip

I wouldn’t bet on this.   All the polling shows the Liberals winning 13 + seats which is reflected in the short odds.

 

Bass

The Market

Candidate

Friday 7 March

Saturday 8 March

Monday 10 March

Wednesday 12 March

Ferguson

$1.75

$1.45

$1.33

$1.25

Gutwein

 

$3.75

$4.00

$4.50

M O’Byrne

 

$9.00

 

$12.00

Booth

 

$11.00

 

$15.00

Wightman

 

$21.00

 

$21.00

 

The Movers

Ferguson has been hammered into $1.25 from $1.75 a week ago.  It's been consistent betting that's seen him continue to warm as favourite in this matchup.  Everyone else has gone further out, but its clear punters believe this is a two horse race.

The Value Bet

Only two can win this.  Ferguson and Gutwein.  Gutwein is the big underdog in this race and $4.50 is pretty good value. 

A Liberal supporter professed to me this week that he thought Gutwein could win and argued that he thought the 'Federal Member' shine could have worn off Ferguson by now.  I can't say I agree with that analysis, but it might be something to hold onto if you like an underdog.

The Tip

Ferguson is a safe bet.  Even the 25% return now being offered is ok I think.  I just cannot see Gutwein making up 7,000 primary votes.

 

Braddon

The Market

Candidate

Friday 7 March

Saturday 8 March

Monday 10 March

Wednesday13 March

Brooks

$3.50

$1.75

$1.05

$1.10

Rockliff

$1.75

$3.50

$5.00

$4.00

The Movers

From his massive slide from $1.75 to $5, punters have finally found their value point and hit the button on Rockliff.  As a result he's back into $4, which is still a big underdog, but it shows that punters haven't given up on him. 

As a result, Brooksy's drifted!!   I made good on my promise to have a nibble on Rockliff if he got out to $4.50 and I can now confirm that I am a proud owner of a $50 bet on Jeremy Rockliff.  I'm both a man of my word and a sucker for some good odds.

Please note that I was not the punter who pushed this down to $4.  It was safe and secure at $5 for well over 24 hours before it moved back to $4.00.

The Value Bet

I'm sticking to my earlier advice that Rockliff was good value at $4.50+.  He's back into $4, so unless you have some good intel, I'd keep away for now.

The Tip

I still think it's about 70% certain that Brooks will win this.  But don't completely discount Rockliff. 

Discard everyone else.

 

Denison

The Market

Candidate

Friday 7 March

Saturday 8 March

Wednesday 13 March

Matthew Groom

$1.50

$1.95

$1.95

Scott Bacon

$4.00

$2.50

$2.50

Cassy O’Connor

$5.00

$6.00

$3.50

Julian Amos

 

$8.00

$9.00

Elise Archer

 

$9.00

$13.00

The Movers

Cassy crushed!  $6 into $3.50 is likely a single bet, but I think it's a good bet.  A $150 bet could have made that sort of impact on the small market and I think it probably did.  I feel a bit sorry for punters now though.  Ms O'Connor's shortening has taken a lot of value out of this market and it didn't move Groom Jnr or Bacon Jnr out any further.

The Value Bet

The value was Bacon, but with his drift into $2.50 O’Connor became the value at $6.  O'Connor at $3.50 makes 'value' hard to find in this market.

My personal view remains that either Bacon or O'Connor will win this because Groom has too much competition within the Liberal ranks.  If - like me - you believe this is a two horse race (without the favourite) then they're both value and you should bet on both for guaranteed profit!

The Tip

My immediate reaction to this market was that Bacon would clearly win it, but the polling over the weekend points to a weaker vote than I would have expected for Labor.  I'm still picking Bacon, but I think O'Connor's huge percentage of the Green vote will be very important.  If the polls are right and the Green vote holds up better than Labor's then O'Connor is in with a big shot.

Remember O'Connor JUST beat Bartlett here last time.

However, I would consider Bacon to be more popular this time than Bartlett was last time (that is pure opinion although I have run as a candidate within Denison recently and have a fairly good knowledge).  I would also consider Bacon to have significantly weaker internal competition than Bartlett did in 2010.

For that reason I am still picking Bacon to win with O'Connor second, Groom, Archer and probably Carnes if she can stay in the race until Bacon's surplus is cut up.

 

Franklin

The Market

Candidate

Friday 7 March

Saturday 8 March

Hodgman

$1.03

$1.03

Giddings

$17

$19

McKim

$19

$17

O’Byrne

$26

$26

Petrusma

$34

$34

The Tip

Hodgman will win this easily.  There's been no market movement. 

 

Lyons

The Market

Candidate

Friday 7 March

Saturday 8 March

Wednesday 13 March

Hidding

 

$3

$4.00

Barnett

 

$3.75

$3.25

White

$6

$2.95

$2.20

Shelton

 

$7

$6.50

Morris

 

$9

$7.00

The Movers

I don't like to brag, but punters have either listened to me, or agree with me that the two bets here are White and - as a roughy - Morris.

Normally Rebecca White and Adam Brooks would have almost nothing in common apart from driving utes and being MPs, but tonight they share the love of punters across the State who have backed them into favouritism from being originally considered outside chances by the bookie.  White has come in from $6 to an incredible $2.20.

There has been a little bit of (heterosexual-only-after-marriage) action for former Senator Guy Barnett from $3.75 into $3.25.  If there was a market on whether Barnett would beat Hidding I would put my house on it.  The Ferguson effect (Federal MP into State seat = big votes) could be in force here, and Barnett hasn't exactly kept a low profile in his time off. 

I note at least one person has put a bet on Shelton.  Lots of laughs as he comes into $6.50.  Absolutely no hope.  It is truly bizarre that he is shorter than Morris who will clearly beat him.

The Value Bet

Tim Morris won this last time!!!

He's still out at $7 (in from $9) and I think that's waaaay too long. 

I reiterate, to increase your chances of topping the poll you don't want a strong team of fellow candidates on your ticket.  Morris has a weak Green ticket at his back.

I do not totally discount a Barnett win here because I think he's the strongest Liberal candidate.  However, I still think between Hidding, Shelton, Cadart and Evans there is just too much competition for him to top the poll.

The Tip

White*

*As long as the former Polley/Llewellyn voters don't hold a grudge about the polleywaffle thing.  Or just don't like her.  Or like Gordon better.

I think they'll vote White. 

HOWEVER, if you are going to have a bet on Ms White, make sure you have a little nibble on Mr Morris, just in case.

My tip:  White, Morris, Barnett, Hidding, Shelton

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